October 26, 2009

Como invertir y sacar provecho de los cambios

Filed under: Administración, Ahorros, Dinero, Inversiones — Tags: , , , , drdinero - 4:35 pm

  Pasadas las elecciones de junio, aquellos argentinos que invirtieron localmente en acciones y bonos (tanto en pesos como en dólares) obtuvieron ganancias mayores al 30% en dólares. Para quienes invirtieron en el exterior en bonos emergentes o desarrollados ganaron por encima del 6% y mucho más en acciones.  Desde principios de año, quienes cambiaron pesos argentinos por dólares ganaron alrededor de 11%. Aproximándonos a fin de año, en donde se tiende a hacer un balance de lo ocurrido y se comienza a perfilar el año entrante, muchos se preguntan si deben seguir invertidos en los mismos instrumentos de inversión que este año.  Y para responder a esta pregunta, qué mejor que unos párrafos de la canción "Todo Cambia" de la célebre Mercedes Sosa: "Cambia lo superficial, Cambia también lo profundo, Cambia el modo de pensar, Cambia todo en este mundo, Cambia el clima con los años, Cambia el pastor su rebaño, Y así como todo cambia, Que yo cambie no es extraño...".  Y esto es fundamental para ser exitoso con nuestras finanzas: en vez de "comprar y mantener" (siempre lo mismo) debemos "comprar y monitorear" nuestras inversiones, en la medida que cambian los escenarios.  ¿Qué está cambiando y podría cambiar de cara al año próximo? En primer lugar, dado que lo peor de la crisis ha quedado atrás y el año que viene muchos países retomarán el crecimiento, el mundo de "tasas de interés cero" a nivel mundial comenzará a cambiar y podemos esperar mejores rendimientos por intereses en diferentes países.  En segundo lugar, la recuperación de las economías será despareja entre los mismos, siendo los más beneficiados los países emergentes con menores problemas estructurales como Brasil, China, India, Corea, Perú y Australia.  En tercer lugar, esta salida de la recesión, aunque más tibia que las anteriores, generará la aparición de  inflación que deberá ser contrarrestada por los bancos centrales.  En cuarto lugar, la recuperación vendrá más por el lado de las exportaciones y los gastos en infraestructura que por una fuerte recuperación del consumo. Por último, en nuestro país, existirá una disociación entre los "mercados financieros" y la "economía real": mientras los primeros continuarán atrayendo capitales especulativos dado la voluntad de este gobierno de ir normalizando su inserción en el mundo financiero internacional, la economía real continuará aletargada hasta bien entrado el 2011, dado la incertidumbre reinante a la hora de realizar negocios.  En este contexto, ¿Cuál serían los mejores instrumentos financieros para preservar e incrementar nuestros ahorros?  Para quienes dolarizaron gran parte de sus carteras de inversión, sería deseable pesificar una parte de las mismas y aprovechar las tasas de interés de plazos fijos en pesos o títulos públicos en pesos (que ofrecen posibilidades de apreciación superior a los de sus homónimos en dólares) debido a que las presiones de devaluación del peso argentino se han moderado.  Si bien el euro podría ganar un poco más de terreno frente al dólar en el corto plazo, el billete verde se prepara para volver al ruedo y de ninguna manera perderá su status de "reserva de valor internacional".  Monedas ligadas a commodities, como el dólar australiano, ayudarían a la diversificación. Para quienes tengan bonos en el exterior, ya sean emergentes o desarrollados de mediana duración deberían ir pensando en vender dichas posiciones debido a que sus rendimientos se podrían ver afectados por la suba de tasas internacional.  Las acciones de los países señalados podrían seguir su tendencia ascendente aunque deberían monitorearse muy de cerca porque no estaremos exentos de ajustes bruscos.  En lo que se refiere a commodities, los metales preciosos como el oro, plata y platino, no deberían faltar en ninguna cartera de inversión y complemento el trigo y maíz pueden brindar alegría. En el mundo de las inversiones en donde "todo cambia" es mejor cambiar uno para decidir nuestro propio destino a que cambie nuestro destino por culpa de los otros. Como dice un proverbio japonés: "Saber y no actuar es no saber nada".

51 Comments »

  1. Marcelo; podrias decirme como se hace o que insrtrumento existe para invertir en platino.por otro lado, cuanto se puede ganar de aca a un ano gracias Fer

    Comment by Fernando — October 26, 2009 8:27 pm

  2. MArcelo. me podria indicar como puedo hacer para comprar platino. cuanto puedo ganar de aca a un ano. gracias fer

    Comment by fernando — October 26, 2009 8:30 pm

  3. Marcelo: Tengo 10000 pesos. ¿Qué me recomendás hacer?

    Comment by Carla — October 27, 2009 10:34 am

  4. Marcelo, veo que tenes una postura positiva a las economías emergentes y sus monedas, la cual comparto. Pero no sé cómo interpretar este nuevo impuesto que puso el gobierno de Lula para frenar la apreciación de su moneda. Muchas gracias, Facundo.

    Comment by Facundo — October 27, 2009 11:14 am

  5. NO ESTOY MUY DE ACUERDO CON TUS CONSIDERACIONES EL PESO A PERDIDO VALOR CON RELACION AL DOLAR EL QUE CAMBIO PESOS POR DOLARES NO GANO -NO PERDIO VALOR- EL DOLAR TIENE TAMBIEN INFLACION Y ESTA PERDIENDO COMO MONEDA INTERNACIONAL DIFERENTES PAISES VEN LA POSIBILIDAD DE IMPONER LA PROPIA EL DOLAR NO ESTA CUBIERTO SI VARIOS PAISES SUS RESERVAS CAMBIARIAN POR EUROS .............

    Comment by GABRIEL — November 7, 2009 6:08 pm

  6. Marcelo, soy empleado en administracion publica medio dia, tengo conocimientos en construccion de obras(hacer planos y calculos), y dispongo de $ 10000 ahorrados ¿en que puedo invertir? Gracias Santiago

    Comment by Santiago — January 20, 2010 6:30 pm

  7. Marcelo: lei tu libro "Hombre Rico Hombre Pobre" me abriste la cabeza en muchos aspectos, es muy interesnte! me gustaria un asesoramiento de tu parte en cuanto a asesores financieros responsables y honestos y en bibliografia para poder entender un poco mas los terminos y el funcionamiento de los mercados y las inversiones!! desde ya muchas gracias! Atte. Carolina

    Comment by carolina — January 26, 2010 2:58 am

  8. Hola!. Quería felicitarte por tu sitio, la verdad que está muy bien armado, sobre todo cuando hablas de inversiones. Me interesa mucho el tema, yo soy licenciado en administración y soy creador del sitio www.inversion-es.com que apunta a hablar también sobre inversiones. Estoy aprendiendo mucho a invertir y a medida que amplío mis conocimientos lo voy publicando en mi sitio. También acepto recibir artículos escritos por la gente para publicar en mi sitio. La finalidad del sitio es que la gente aprenda a vivir de manera independiente, que sepa que se puede vivir en base a inversiones y lograr así la libertad financiera. El sitio está creciendo permanentemente, la idea es poder ir agregando día a día más artículos. Espero que lo visiten y me den sus opiniones. Saludos!!!.

    Comment by sergio — February 13, 2010 5:29 pm

  9. Inversiones

    Comment by carlitos — February 24, 2010 2:29 am

  10. Al lograr una inversión adecuada, eficiente, debemos pensar no solo en terminos de ganancia sino en términos operativos, para estar consciente de la mejor forma de invertir como-invertir.aicapitales.com

    Comment by Lourdes Santos — March 18, 2010 4:28 pm

  11. tengo 10.000 pesos que me aconsejas hacer

    Comment by jorge mariño — March 23, 2010 10:30 pm

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